Data from: How do cold-adapted plants respond to climatic cycles? interglacial expansion explains current distribution and genomic diversity in Primula farinosa L.

Understanding the effects of past climatic fluctuations on the
distribution and population-size dynamics of cold-adapted species is
essential for predicting their responses to ongoing global climate change.
In spite of the heterogeneity of cold-adapted species, two main
contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain their responses to
Late Quaternary glacial cycles, namely, the interglacial contraction
versus the interglacial expansion hypotheses. Here, we use the
cold-adapted plant Primula farinosa to test two demographic models under
each of the two alternative hypotheses and a fifth, null model. We first
approximate the time and extent of demographic contractions and expansions
during the Late Quaternary by projecting species distribution models
across the last 72 ka. We also generate genome-wide sequence data using a
Reduced Representation Library approach to reconstruct the spatial
structure, genetic diversity, and phylogenetic relationships of lineages
within P. farinosa. Finally, by integrating the results of climatic and
genomic analyses in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we
propose the most likely model for the extent and direction of
population-size changes in P. farinosa through the Late Quaternary. Our
results support the interglacial expansion of P. farinosa, differing from
the prevailing paradigm that the observed distribution of cold-adapted
species currently fragmented in high altitude and latitude regions
reflects the consequences of postglacial contraction processes.