Code for: The Dynamics of Evasion

This package includes the code to perform the simulations reported in the paper "The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet" and its appendices. This code generates all the figures and tables based on simulation results.<br><br><b>Abstract: </b>To reduce Russia's funding for its Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed, after a delay, a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports utilizing Western services. To evade that ceiling, Russia developed a "shadow fleet" using no such services. We simulate a calibrated model driven by this fleet's expansion to assess various sanctions. Mainly, sanctions---from a price ceiling to its extreme service ban version---significantly reduce the present value of Russia's profits. However, tighter price caps will not necessarily harm Russia if they raise the world price. Shortening the delay between sanctions announcement and implementation can harm Russia more.