Data from: Decreased precipitation predictability negatively affects population growth through differences in adult survival

Global climate change is leading to decreased climatic predictability.
Theoretical work indicates that changes in the climate’s intrinsic
predictability will affect population dynamics and extinction, but
experimental evidence is scarce. Here, we experimentally tested whether
differences in intrinsic precipitation predictability affect population
dynamics of the European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) by simulating
more (MP) and less predictable (LP) precipitation in 12 semi-natural
populations over 3 years and measuring different vital rates. A seasonal
age-structured matrix model was parametrized to assess treatment effects
on vital rates and asymptotic population growth (λ). There was a
non-significant trend for survival being higher in MP than LP
precipitation, and no differences existed in reproductive rates. Small
non-significant survival differences in adults explained changes in λ and
survival differences among age-classes were in line with predictions from
cohort resonance. As a result, λ was significantly higher in MP than LP.
This experimentally shows that small effects have major consequences on λ,
that forecasted decreases in intrinsic precipitation predictability are
likely to exacerbate the current rate of population decline and
extinction, and that stage-structured matrix models are required to
unravel the aftermath of climate change.