A Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability

近年来，亚洲季风区发生的极端天气/气候事件越来越多，已造成巨大的财产和生命损失。本文从古气候的角度分析了全新世亚洲夏季风(ASM)的变化，并对未来中国季风区的气候极端事件进行了评估。我们发现，自6.6 ka BP以来，ASM的年代际变率增强，系统向更加混乱的波动过渡。我们认为，自全新世晚期以来，ENSO的逐渐增强是增强ASM变化的原因。如果在过去11.2 ka中，观测到的季风平均强度、ENSO和ASM年代际变率之间的关系继续存在，那么未来变暖世界ASM年代际变率将增强。因此，日降水极端值的加剧，加上ASM的年代际变率增强，可能会使打破纪录的极端值在未来更加频繁，增加中国发生气候相关灾害的风险。In recent years, the frequency of extreme weather and climate events in the Asian monsoon region has been increasing, causing huge property and life losses. This paper analyzes the changes of the Holocene Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) from a paleoclimatological perspective, and assesses future climate extreme events in the Chinese monsoon region. We found that since 6.6 ka BP, the interdecadal variability of the ASM has intensified, and the system has transitioned to more chaotic fluctuations. We argue that the gradual intensification of ENSO since the late Holocene is the cause of the enhanced ASM variability. If the observed relationship among monsoon mean intensity, ENSO and ASM interdecadal variability continues to hold over the past 11.2 ka, then the ASM interdecadal variability will intensify in a future warmer world. Therefore, the intensification of daily precipitation extremes combined with the enhanced ASM interdecadal variability may make record-breaking extreme events more frequent in the future, increasing the risk of climate-related disasters in China.