中亚高分辨率气候预估数据集（1986-2005和2031-2050）

中亚的生态系统脆弱，自然灾害频发，水资源短缺，冰川加速融化，是气候变化敏感区之一。在评估该地区的脆弱性、影响性和适应性时，急需高分辨率的气候预估数据集。为此，我们对来自CMIP5的三个偏差订正后的全球气候模式（MPI-ESM-MR、CCSM4和HadGEM2-ES），在中亚地区开展了9千米的动力降尺度，继而生产了一个中亚高分辨率气候预估数据集，将其命名为HCPD-CA（High-resolution Climate Projection Dataset in Central Asia）。它的历史时段是1986-2005，未来时段是2031-2050，排放情景是RCP4.5。这个数据集有4个静态变量和10个常被用于驱动生态和水文模型的气象要素。静态变量有地形高度（HGT, m）、土地利用类型（LU_INDEX, 21 categories）、陆地水体（LANDMASK, 1代表陆地, 0代表水体）和土壤类型（ISLTYP, 16 categories）。10个气象要素是日降水量（PREC，mm/day）、2米日平均/最高/最低温（T2MEAN/T2MAX/T2MIN，K）、2米日平均相对湿度（RH2MEAN，%）、10米日平均维向和经向风（U10MEAN/V10MEAN，m/s）、日平均向下短波/长波辐射（SWD/LWD，W/m2）和日平均地表气压（PSFC，Pa）。评估结果显示：这个数据产品在描述中亚各个气象要素的平均态上有很高的质量，这保证了其可用性。未来气候变化的主要特征是：升温剧烈（年均温升高1.62-2.02℃），向下短波和长波辐射显著增强，其他气象要素变化很小。HCPD-CA数据集可被用于评估未来气候变化对中亚的多方面影响，特别是在生态和水文系统上。

Central Asia is one of the most climate change-sensitive regions, featuring fragile ecosystems, frequent natural disasters, water shortages and accelerating glacier melt. There is an urgent demand for high-resolution climate projection datasets when evaluating the vulnerability, impacts and adaptability of this region. To address this need, we conducted 9-km dynamical downscaling over Central Asia using three bias-corrected global climate models (MPI-ESM-MR, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) from CMIP5, and developed a high-resolution climate projection dataset for Central Asia, named HCPD-CA (High-resolution Climate Projection Dataset in Central Asia). The historical period of this dataset spans 1986–2005, the future period covers 2031–2050, and the emission scenario is RCP4.5. This dataset includes 4 static variables and 10 meteorological factors commonly used to drive ecological and hydrological models. The 4 static variables are terrain height (HGT, m), land use type (LU_INDEX, 21 categories), land mask (LANDMASK, '1 represents land, 0 represents water') and soil type (ISLTYP, 16 categories). The 10 meteorological factors are daily precipitation (PREC, mm/day), daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature at 2 meters (T2MEAN/T2MAX/T2MIN, K), daily mean relative humidity at 2 meters (RH2MEAN, %), daily mean zonal and meridional winds at 10 meters (U10MEAN/V10MEAN, m/s), daily mean downward shortwave/longwave radiation (SWD/LWD, W/m²) and daily mean surface air pressure (PSFC, Pa). Evaluation results demonstrate that this data product has high quality in depicting the mean states of various meteorological elements over Central Asia, which ensures its usability. The main characteristics of future climate change include dramatic warming (annual mean temperature increase of 1.62–2.02 ℃), significant enhancement of downward shortwave and longwave radiation, and negligible changes in other meteorological factors. The HCPD-CA dataset can be used to assess the multi-faceted impacts of future climate change on Central Asia, particularly on ecological and hydrological systems.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

中亚高分辨率气候预估数据集（1986-2005和2031-2050）是一个高质量的气候数据集，包含历史时段和未来时段的数据，适用于生态和水文模型研究。数据集的特点是空间分辨率高（1km - 10km），时间分辨率为日，未来气候变化主要表现为温度显著升高和辐射增强。