Techno-economic analysis of air-source heat pump (ASHP) technology for single-detached home heating applications in Canada

The air-source heat pump (ASHP) is a popular system that does not see much use in cold-climates despite its high potential in low carbon footprint. This study was designed to evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of its application to single-detached homes in Canada. First, a set of support vector regression (SVR) models was developed by a housing database for prediction of the exposed surface areas of homes in five Canadian cities: Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, and Yellowknife. The predicted areas were then used to estimate the heat demands of all homes. As a result, the technical evaluation was conducted by comparison of the heat loss rate with the heat supply rate of ASHPs. Annual energy consumption was calculated using a bin method for furnace-alone and furnace/ASHP hybrid systems. Seasonal operating costs and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions were estimated by utility costs and emissions factors for each city. Our findings show that Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal are technically feasible to adopt the ASHP technology for economic and low GHG emission benefits. Although currently Edmonton and Yellowknife could not theoretically gain ASHP’s benefits, the ASHP technology is still a promising technology to be implemented in the future if renewable energy infrastructures are established.