Integrating Historical Change and Future Projections to Guide Conservation (Final Report Only), The Bren School, University of California Santa Barbara, 2018-2019

This dataset is from a master's group thesis project at The Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and contains the final written report only (see below for the associated datasets containing the project analyses and data packages). The student researchers who completed this project include: Brad Anderson, Meghan Bowen, Lucy Genua, Kym Howo, and Genelle Ives.California’s coastal habitats face increasing threats from climate change and development. The Dangermond Preserve, located in western Santa Barbara County and manage by The Nature Conservancy, remains largely undeveloped but was managed as a cattle ranch for over a century. This project aims to inform conservation planning at the preserve by studying the property’s history and anticipating its future. This combined approach is important because, given our increasing awareness of climate change, conservation that focuses on recreating past conditions or maintaining current conditions may not be ideal or possible. This project had four objectives: 1) identify changes in area and structure of natural habitats over time, 2) predict plant distribution changes under future climate scenarios, 3) investigate the impact of ranching infrastructure on the threatened California red-legged frog distribution, and 4) prioritize conservation actions. An analysis of historic aerial imagery and vegetation maps showed that grassland area at the preserve has declined since the 1930s, whereas woodland and shrubland areas have increased. Ground surveys of coast live oak indicated, however, that oak recruitment has possibly declined over the same time period. Climate forecasting showed that some northern plant species and locally endemic species might decline at the preserve, while southern species that prefer warmer temperatures could expand. Finally, an analysis of streams and water features indicated that the preserve’s red-legged frog population may be supported by ranching stock ponds. In light of these results, we made recommendations for conservation, monitoring, and future research priorities.This project began in April 2018 and completed in June 2019. To access the data files and analyses associated with this project, visit the dataset titled "Integrating Historical Change and Future Projections to Guide Conservation, The Bren School, University of California Santa Barbara, 2018-2019".