Student Debt and Default: The Role of For-profit Colleges

The files include data that will replicate the tables and figures of the paper "Student Debt and Default: The Role of For-profit Colleges". The data we use in this analysis come from five sources: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), National Student Loan Data System (NSLDS), College Scorecard data (CSD), and the US Census. The data are described in detail in the paper. We isolate the causal effect of for-profit enrollment on student debt and repayment outcomes as well as the educational and labor market mechanisms that drive any such effects. We approach this problem using a novel instrument combined with comprehensive institution-level data on student debt, default, educational attainment, and labor market outcomes. Our instrument leverages the interaction between changes in the demand for college due to labor demand shocks and the baseline supply of for-profit schools. We compare how enrollment and subsequent outcomes change across areas that experience similar labor demand shocks but that have different latent supply of for-profit institutions. The first-stage estimates show that students are much more likely to enroll in a for-profit institution for a given labor demand change when there is a higher supply of such schools in the base period. Among four-year students, for-profit enrollment leads to more loans, higher loan amounts, an increased likelihood of borrowing, and an increased risk of default. Two-year for-profit students also take out more loans, originate more student debt, and have higher default rates. We present evidence that these debt and default outcomes are driven by higher for-profit tuition and a negative effect of for-profit enrollment on labor market outcomes. Our results point to high costs and low returns to for-profit enrollment that generate worse student debt and repayment outcomes.

本数据集包含了旨在复现论文《营利性学院在学生债务及违约中所扮演的角色》中表格与图表所需的数据。本研究分析所采用的数据源自五个不同来源：季度就业与工资普查（QCEW）、综合高等教育数据系统（IPEDS）、国家学生贷款数据系统（NSLDS）、学院评分卡数据（CSD）以及美国人口普查数据。具体数据描述详见于相关论文。本研究旨在孤立营利性入学对学生债务及偿还结果的影响，以及推动此类影响的学历与劳动力市场机制。我们采用一种新颖的工具，结合了关于学生债务、违约、教育成就和劳动力市场结果的全面机构层级数据来解决这个问题。该工具利用了因劳动力需求冲击而导致的大学需求变化与营利性学校基准供给之间的交互作用。我们比较了在不同潜在营利性机构供给条件下，经历相似劳动力需求冲击地区的入学及后续结果的变化。第一阶段估计显示，在基期存在更高营利性学校供给的情况下，面对特定的劳动力需求变化，学生更有可能进入营利性机构。在四年制学生中，营利性入学导致更多贷款、更高的贷款额度、增加的借款可能性和增加的违约风险。两年制营利性学生也借款更多，产生更多的学生债务，并拥有更高的违约率。我们提供了证据表明，这些债务和违约结果是由更高的营利性学费以及营利性入学对劳动力市场结果的负面影响所驱动的。我们的研究结果指向了营利性入学的高成本和低回报，这导致了更糟糕的学生债务和偿还结果。