Natural Gas: Entering the New Dark Age

About the workshop In March 2015, KAPSARC convened the first workshop in its global gas markets energy workshop series. The workshop was hosted by the Clingendael International Energy Programme at the Huys Clingendael in The Hague, The Netherlands. The workshop, attended by policymakers, researchers and industry practitioners, was conducted on the basis that the discussions could be reported on a non-attribution basis.Key PointsMany in the natural gas industry view the rise in the share of natural gas in the global energy mix as inevitable. However, this industry optimism is not reflected in the approach of policymakers. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets provide an insight into the state of the global gas business, because: The next wave of LNG supply projects is faced with uncertain demand growth—in Europe because of substitution by Russian imports and in Asia because of competition with coal. Imported natural gas is expensive relative to coal and, for the time being, developing countries value low cost energy for industrialization ahead of long-term environmental risks.  North American LNG will likely secure a significant market share but does not guarantee lower prices for Asian consumers.  Despite importer appetite to move away from long-term LNG contracts, often indexed to oil prices, it is far from certain that sellers will be capable of financing major infrastructure in the absence of such contracts.Whatever the future holds, we can be certain that it will be different than the one envisaged as recently as five years ago and, probably, than the one we can envisage today.

关于研讨会
2015年3月，KAPSARC在其全球天然气市场能源研讨会系列中召开了首届研讨会。本次研讨会由荷兰海牙的Clingendael国际能源计划主办，于Huys Clingendael举行。与会者包括政策制定者、研究人员及行业从业者，讨论基于非归因原则进行报告。要点
众多天然气行业人士认为，天然气在全球能源结构中所占份额的上升是不可避免的。然而，这种行业乐观情绪并未在政策制定者的方法中得到体现。液化天然气（LNG）市场为全球天然气业务的现状提供了洞察，原因如下：
下一波LNG供应项目面临着不确定的需求增长——在欧洲，由于俄罗斯进口的替代作用；在亚洲，由于与煤炭的竞争。
与煤炭相比，进口天然气价格昂贵，而发展中国家则更重视低成本能源以促进工业化，而非长期的环境风险。
北美LNG可能占据显著的市场份额，但并不能保证为亚洲消费者带来更低的价格。
尽管进口商有意愿摆脱长期LNG合同，这些合同通常与石油价格挂钩，但在没有这些合同的情况下，卖家能否为重大基础设施融资尚无定论。无论未来如何，我们可以肯定的是，它将不同于五年前所设想的未来，也许甚至不同于我们今天所能设想的未来。