Accounting for heterogeneity when estimating stopover duration, timing and population size of red knots along the Luannan Coast of Bohai Bay, China

1. To successfully perform their long-distance migrations, migratory birds require sites along their migratory routes to rest and refuel. Monitoring the use of so-called stopover and staging sites provides insights into (1) the timing of migration and (2) the importance of a site for migratory bird populations. A recently developed Bayesian superpopulation model that integrates mark-recapture data and ring density data enabled the estimation of stopover timing, duration and population size. Yet, this model did not account for heterogeneity in encounter (p) and staying (ϕ) probabilities.
2. Here we extended the integrated superpopulation model by implementing finite mixtures to account for heterogeneity in p and ϕ. We used simulations and real data on red knots Calidris canutus staging in Bohai Bay, China, during spring migration to (1) show the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in encounter and staying probabilities to get unbiased estimates of stopover timing, duration and nu...