Model prediction accuracy.

Vegetation types on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, were classified at the 0.1 ha scale and rescaled to match the resolution of climate surface data for climate envelope modelling. Prediction accuracy for each vegetation type is based on the ability of the climate envelope model to predict the current vegetation type of each climate cell. We assigned each climate cell the vegetation community with the largest area. Percent area is the average area of the 1-km climate cell occupied by the assigned vegetation type prior to rescaling the vegetation. We identify vegetation types as co-occurring when they occupy ≥ 10% of the climate cell area. Co-occurring vegetation identifies vegetation types that occur within climate cells assigned to another type and the average percent of the 1-km cell occupied by the unassigned type. We identify the vegetation types that are most likely to be misclassified as another type by the climate envelope model as vegetation types that represent ≥ 20% the misclassified cells.