Assessment of Past and Future Droughts in the Kashmir Himalaya under Changing Climatic Conditions (1980–2100)

This study investigates the historical trends (1980-2020) and future projections (2021-2100) of droughts in the Kashmir Himalaya, India, employing a combination of observational data, ERA5 reanalysis data and climate model simulations under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. To capture the unique topoclimatic complexities of the region, statistically downscaled and bias-corrected ensemble climate model data were employed. A multi-index drought assessment framework was adopted, incorporating the Deciles index, Aridity index, Standardized Precipitation index and Drought Area Index. Meteorological drought years were further validated using lean streamflow records from the River Jhelum and its tributaries, ensuring the robustness of the findings. The baseline period (1980-2020) identified 21 drought years, deepening drought recurrence and severity, indicating a clear signal of climate change. Future projections revealed drought amplification, under SSP2-4.5 scenario, declining precipitation is projected to results in more frequent drought years, whereas the SSP5-8.5 scenario shows comparatively fewer drought occurrences due to increased precipitation. Rising heat and erratic rain will deepen water stress, making severe, prolonged droughts commonplace by late-century. The southern and south-western parts of the Kashmir valley are projected to be most vulnerable, while the north-eastern high-elevation regions remain relatively resilient due to persistent sub-zero temperatures. These findings have critical implications for water resource management, agriculture, and disaster preparedness in the Kashmir Himalaya. This study provides valuable insights and a baseline information for policymakers and stakeholders to develop evidence-based region-specific adaptation strategies to combat the cascading impacts of drought on ecosystems and livelihoods in the climatically sensitive Himalayan region.