<b>Managing Global Risks of Invasive Aquatic Plants under Climate Change: Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling and Economic Cost Projections</b>

Invasive aquatic plants obstruct waterways, disrupt fisheries, and cause significant economic, social, and ecological impacts. This study focuses on four globally widespread invasive species: <b><i>Eichhornia crassipes</i></b>, <b><i>Pistia stratiotes</i></b>, <b><i>Cabomba caroliniana</i></b>, and <b><i>Alternanthera philoxeroides</i></b>. Distribution points and integrated environmental datasets were collected, and the global potential distribution of these species was predicted using the species distribution modeling framework Biomod2. Additionally, the Invacost database was employed to evaluate economic losses, which included statistical analyses and model fitting. The results indicate that the potential suitable habitats for<i> </i><b><i>E. crassipes</i></b> and <b><i>P. stratiotes</i></b> are primarily located in South Asia, parts of Africa, Europe, and Oceania, as well as low- to mid-latitude regions in North and South America. The current potential distribution of <b><i>A. philoxeroides</i></b> is concentrated in South Asia, the southeastern United States, most of South America, and some low-suitability areas in Europe and Africa. For <b><i>C. caroliniana</i></b>, the predicted suitable habitats are relatively limited and primarily distributed across South Asia, Southeast Asia, the southeastern United States, and southeastern South America. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats for these species are projected to expand and shift toward higher latitudes, with <b><i>E. crassipes</i></b> and <b><i>P. stratiotes</i></b> experiencing the largest increases in suitable areas, at 9.99% and 10.21%, respectively. In contrast, the increases for <b><i>A. philoxeroides</i></b> and<i> </i><b><i>C. caroliniana</i></b> are relatively modest. Key environmental variables contributing to these predictions include mean annual temperature, population density, and mean temperature of the coldest season. The global economic losses caused by these four invasive aquatic plants are estimated at $7,380.30 million from 1990 to 2025, with an average annual loss of $205.01 million. The model fitting suggests that economic losses have been increasing over time. This study provides predictions of the global potential distribution of four invasive aquatic plants and examines changes in their suitable habitats under future climate conditions. It also evaluates the associated global economic losses. The findings highlight the regions at high risk of invasion by<i> </i><b><i>P. stratiotes</i></b>, <b><i>E. crassipes</i></b>,<i> </i><b><i>C. caroliniana</i></b>, and<i> </i><b><i>A. philoxeroides</i></b>, as well as the economic impacts of these invasions. Furthermore, the study underscores the influence of human activities and climate change on the distribution of invasive aquatic plants. These results contribute to the monitoring, early detection, and rapid response to invasive aquatic plants, aiding the development of prevention and management strategies. They provide theoretical support for research on biological invasions and climate change while offering recommendations for raising public awareness and informing government policy decisions. The study aims to offer new perspectives on the prediction of biological invasion risks and economic losses, thereby laying a foundation for improved management and innovative prevention strategies for invasive species.入侵水生植物会阻塞航道、扰乱渔业生产，并造成严重的经济、社会与生态影响。本研究聚焦于4种全球广泛分布的入侵物种：凤眼蓝（Eichhornia crassipes）、大薸（Pistia stratiotes）、卡罗琳娜水盾草（Cabomba caroliniana）以及喜旱莲子草（Alternanthera philoxeroides）。研究收集了分布点位与集成环境数据集，并利用物种分布建模框架Biomod2预测了这些物种的全球潜在分布区。此外，本研究借助Invacost数据库开展经济损失评估，研究过程涵盖统计分析与模型拟合环节。 结果显示，凤眼蓝与大薸的潜在适宜栖息地主要分布于南亚、非洲部分区域、欧洲及大洋洲，同时涵盖南北美洲的中低纬度区域。当前喜旱莲子草的潜在适宜分布区集中于南亚、美国东南部、南美洲大部分区域，以及欧洲与非洲的部分低适宜性区域。而卡罗琳娜水盾草的预测适宜栖息地相对有限，主要分布于南亚、东南亚、美国东南部以及南美洲东南部区域。 在未来气候情景下，这些物种的适宜栖息地预计将扩张并向高纬度地区迁移，其中凤眼蓝与大薸的适宜面积增幅最大，分别达到9.99%与10.21%。相较而言，喜旱莲子草与卡罗琳娜水盾草的适宜面积增幅则相对平缓。影响上述预测结果的关键环境变量包括年平均气温、人口密度以及最冷月平均气温。 1990年至2025年间，这4种入侵水生植物造成的全球经济损失预计达73.803亿美元，年均损失约2.0501亿美元。模型拟合结果显示，经济损失随时间推移呈上升趋势。 本研究对4种入侵水生植物的全球潜在分布区进行了预测，并分析了未来气候情景下其适宜栖息地的变化，同时评估了相关全球经济损失。研究结果明确了易受大薸、凤眼蓝、卡罗琳娜水盾草及喜旱莲子草入侵的高风险区域，同时揭示了这些入侵事件造成的经济影响。此外，本研究强调了人类活动与气候变化对入侵水生植物分布的影响。 本研究结果可为入侵水生植物的监测、早期发现与快速响应提供支撑，助力入侵防控与管理策略的制定。研究可为生物入侵与气候变化相关研究提供理论支撑，同时为提升公众认知、辅助政府政策制定提供参考建议。本研究旨在为生物入侵风险与经济损失预测提供新视角，为优化入侵物种管理与创新防控策略奠定基础。