Data_Sheet_1_Geothermal Heat Flux in Antarctica: Assessing Models and Observations by Bayesian Inversion.PDF

Geothermal heat flux under the Antarctic ice is one of the least known parameters. Different methods (based on e.g., magnetic or seismic data) have been applied in recent years to quantify the thermal structure and the geothermal heat flux, resulting in vastly different estimates. In this study, we use a Bayesian Monte-Carlo-Markov-Chain approach to explore the consistency of such models and to which degree lateral variations of the thermal parameters are required. Hereby, we evaluate the input from different lithospheric models and how they influence surface heat flux. We demonstrate that both Curie isotherm and heat production are dominating parameters for the thermal calculation and that use of incorrect models or sparsely available data lead to unreliable results. As an alternative approach, geological information should be coupled with geophysical data analysis, as we demonstrate for the Antarctic Peninsula.

南极冰层下的地热通量是已知参数中最为不明确的一个。近年来，为量化热结构和地热通量，研究者们采用了多种方法（例如基于磁学或地震学数据的方法），从而得出了差异巨大的估计值。在本研究中，我们采用贝叶斯蒙特卡洛马尔可夫链方法来探讨此类模型的可靠性以及热参数横向变化的必要性程度。在此过程中，我们评估了不同地壳模型对地表热通量的影响。研究表明，居里等温线和热生成是热计算的支配性参数，而使用错误的模型或稀少的数据会导致结果不可靠。作为一种替代方法，地质信息应与地球物理数据分析相结合，正如我们在南极半岛所展示的那样。