Ecological Niche Modeling of the Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) in China: Application of Meta-Analysis and Biomod2

Spodoptera frugiperda, commonly known as the fall armyworm, is a globally invasive pest that poses a significant threat to agricultural production and food security. To predict its future distribution in China, this study employed a combination of meta-analysis and the Biomod2 model to systematically evaluate changes in potential habitat suitability under various climate scenarios. By integrating data from global literature, key environmental factors influencing the survival of the fall armyworm—particularly temperature and humidity—were identified, along with the impact of these climatic variables on different developmental stages. Using the Biomod2 model under a moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), species distribution projections revealed a significant expansion of potential habitats, especially in the Yangtze River Basin, South China, East China, as well as northern and high-altitude regions. As temperatures rise to 27-32°C, the developmental rate, reproductive capacity, and adaptability of the fall armyworm are expected to increase substantially. By the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s, not only will the area of highly suitable habitats expand, but the centroid of suitable regions will also shift northward and westward. This indicates that climate warming may facilitate the pest's reproduction and expansion within current habitats and potentially enable its establishment in new regions. However, the study also found that habitat expansion may be accompanied by the loss of suitability in certain areas, particularly by the 2050s, a period characterized by more severe climate change. This research highlights the profound impact of climate change on the future spread of the fall armyworm and provides a scientific basis for risk assessment and control strategies. It recommends enhanced monitoring and early warning in high-risk regions, along with optimized control measures to address the dynamic shifts in habitat distribution. The study not only aids in understanding the distribution dynamics of the fall armyworm under climate change but also offers crucial scientific support for addressing future agricultural challenges.