Replication Data for: The Development Threshold — Demographics and the Middle-Income Transition

Replication package for 'The Development Threshold' by Brian Peters (2026). Investigates whether there is an income threshold above which demographic structure begins to predict capital flows, and how this threshold relates to the middle-income transition. Uses logit, Cox proportional hazard, and panel models with threshold estimation. Key finding: the demographic-capital flow relationship activates around $8,000-12,000 GDP per capita (PPP), coinciding with the middle-income transition. Below this threshold, demographics have no predictive power for capital flows. Includes country classification, survival analysis, and Kaplan-Meier estimates.