Limited crop production losses under China's photovoltaic expansion

The rapid expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity has created increasing competition between renewable energy development and cropland, raising concerns about food security. China, hosting more than one-third of global PV capacity, faces substantial challenges due to its limited cropland per capita and large population. However, the detailed dynamics of PV encroachment on cropland and their impacts on food production in China still unknown yet. Using PV and crop type remote sensing datasets, we quantified the spatiotemporal patterns of PV installations on cropland from 2014 to 2021 and assessed their impacts on staple crop production under alternative expansion scenarios. We found that although the PV area on cropland is still growing by 2021, its growing rate has declined since 2017. Geographical heterogeneity analysis further indicates regionally differentiated risks, with high-pressure provinces combining intensive PV deployment and limited cropland resources. While rice, maize, and wheat were directly affected by the shading effect, the nationwide impact was limited, with <0.1% of total production losses. Uncontrolled PV expansion in the future may pose a non-negligible risk to food security, whereas stricter government control—or even the removal of PV—would further mitigate potential losses. Our findings provide the first national-scale quantification of PV–cropland conflicts in China and offer insights into sustainable land management under the dual imperatives of decarbonization and food production.