河套灌区农业水资源安全评价研究

气候变化和人类的社会经济活动，导致黄河流域水资源供需矛盾日益突出.国家实施的全流域限额配水政策使河套灌区成为出让水权的重点区域，当地的农业水资源安全面临严重的挑战.本文定义了农业水资源安全的概念及其内涵和外延，分析了黄河流域河套灌区的气候变化背景，检验了WOFOST作物模型在河套灌区的适用性，在农业水资源安全定义的框架下，考虑到河套灌区农业水资源安全利用的主要问题，建立了农业水资源相对安全度模型.应用建立的模型评价了河套灌区未来(2015年)农业水资源安全状况. 　　本研究的目的是在农业水资源安全定义的框架下建立农业水资源相对安全度模型，作为农业水资源安全的一种度量方法，用于评价未来该区域农业水资源的供需状况和未来相对于现状的农业水资源安全程度.在评价过程中，考虑了气候变化影响，灌区实施限额配水政策和工程节水，以及产量期望值在较长时间内不会降低等几方面的因素. 　　1.农业水资源安全是水资源的供应保障农业不受威胁，没有危险、危害和损失.其内涵包括农业水资源安全的自然属性、社会经济属性和人文属性3个方面.其外延涉及广义和狭义的农业水资源安全，以及由农业水资源安全引发的粮食安全、农业生态环境安全、农业经济安全、农村社会安全等. 　　2.河套灌区的气候变化特征为气温持续升高:日照时数的增减存在空间差异;多数站点平均风速减小;平均水汽压有非线性变大的趋势;降水量未呈现明显的升降趋势. 　　3.所确定的WOFOST模型的作物参数是合理的，模型是可靠的.模型的模拟结果经适当的线性校正后，可以应用于潜在水平和水分限制水平下的临河玉米生物量的模拟. 　　4.在河套灌区，由于灌溉面积的增加和近年来引水量的下降，毛灌溉定额呈明显的下降趋势，农业水资源的供需矛盾加剧;渠系水利用率低但节水潜力大. 　　5.在气候变化的背景下，作物需水量在一定的阈值范围内存在下降趋势. 　　6.WOFOST模型模拟的穗重与理论产量之间存在显著的定量关系. 　　7.基于模拟的理论产量和所建的社会生产力影响系数时间函数模型，可以预测农业产量(统计局提供的产量). 　　8.所建立的农业水资源相对安全度模型，能够定量解释农业水资源安全的主要属性. 　　9.基于河套灌区未来气候变化情景和农业用水规划远景目标，在期望产量呈"S型曲线，，增长和以2000年为参照年时，2015年的农业水资源相对安全程度将取决于不同的渠系水利用系数.

Climate change and human socio-economic activities have led to increasingly prominent contradictions between water supply and demand in the Yellow River Basin. The nationwide water quota allocation policy implemented by the state has made the Hetao Irrigation District a key area for water right transfer, posing severe challenges to local agricultural water resources security. This paper defines the concept, connotation and extension of agricultural water resources security, analyzes the climate change background of the Hetao Irrigation District in the Yellow River Basin, verifies the applicability of the WOFOST crop model in the Hetao Irrigation District, and establishes a relative safety degree model for agricultural water resources under the framework of the agricultural water resources security definition, considering the main issues related to the safe utilization of agricultural water resources in the Hetao Irrigation District. The established model was applied to evaluate the agricultural water resources security status of the region in the future (2015).

The purpose of this study is to establish a relative safety degree model for agricultural water resources under the framework of the agricultural water resources security definition, as a measurement method for agricultural water resources security, to evaluate the future supply and demand status of agricultural water resources in this region and the degree of agricultural water resources security relative to the current situation in the future. In the evaluation process, factors such as the impact of climate change, the implementation of water quota allocation policies and project water conservation in the irrigation district, and the expectation that yield expectations will not decrease over a long period of time are considered.

1. Agricultural water resources security refers to the guarantee of water supply to ensure that agriculture is not threatened, and there is no danger, harm or loss. Its connotation includes three aspects: natural attributes, socio-economic attributes and humanistic attributes of agricultural water resources security. Its extension involves generalized and narrow-sense agricultural water resources security, as well as food security, agricultural ecological environment security, agricultural economic security, rural social security and other aspects triggered by agricultural water resources security.
2. The climate change characteristics of the Hetao Irrigation District are as follows: the temperature continues to rise; there are spatial differences in the increase and decrease of sunshine duration; the average wind speed at most stations decreases; the average water vapor pressure shows a non-linear increasing trend; and no obvious upward or downward trend is observed in precipitation.
3. The crop parameters of the WOFOST model determined are reasonable, and the model is reliable. After appropriate linear correction, the simulation results of the model can be applied to the simulation of biomass of Linhe maize under potential and water-limited levels.
4. In the Hetao Irrigation District, due to the increase in irrigation area and the decline of water diversion in recent years, the gross irrigation quota shows a significant downward trend, and the contradiction between supply and demand of agricultural water resources has intensified; the utilization efficiency of canal system water is low, but there is great potential for water conservation.
5. Under the background of climate change, crop water requirement shows a downward trend within a certain threshold range.
6. There is a significant quantitative relationship between the ear weight simulated by the WOFOST model and the theoretical yield.
7. Based on the simulated theoretical yield and the established time function model of social productivity impact coefficient, agricultural yield (the yield provided by the statistical bureau) can be predicted.
8. The established relative safety degree model for agricultural water resources can quantitatively explain the main attributes of agricultural water resources security.
9. Based on the future climate change scenarios of the Hetao Irrigation District and the long-term goals of agricultural water use planning, when the expected yield grows in an S-curve and takes 2000 as the reference year, the relative safety degree of agricultural water resources in 2015 will depend on different canal system water utilization coefficients.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集是'河套灌区农业水资源安全评价研究'的文本数据，发布于2021年，数据量2.98 KB。研究聚焦于河套灌区农业水资源安全评价，定义了农业水资源安全概念，分析了气候变化影响，检验了WOFOST作物模型，并建立了农业水资源相对安全度模型来评估未来水资源供需状况和节水潜力。