Data from: Climatically robust multi-scale species distribution models to support pronghorn recovery in California

We combined two climate-based distribution models with three finer-scale
suitability models to identify habitat for pronghorn recovery in
California now and into the future. Location: California, United
States  Methods: We used a consensus approach to identify areas
of suitable climate now (1980-2010) and future (2031-2060) for pronghorn
in California. We compared the results of models from two separate
hypotheses about their historical ecology in the state, specifically the
migration hypothesis and the niche reduction hypothesis. We combined
occurrences from GPS collars distributed across three populations of
pronghorn in the state to create three distinct habitat models: (1) an
ensemble model using Random Forests, Maxent, Classification and Regression
Trees, and a Generalized Linear Model; (2) a step selection function; and
(3) an expert-driven model. We evaluated consensus among both the climate
models and the suitability models to prioritize areas for, and evaluate
the prospects of, pronghorn recovery.  Results: Climate
suitability for pronghorn in the future depends heavily on model
assumptions. Under the migration hypothesis, our model predicted that
there will be on suitable climate in California in the future. Under the
niche reduction hypothesis, by contrast, suitable climate will expand.
Habitat also depended on the methods used, but areas of consensus among
all three exist in large patches throughout the state. Main Conclusions:
Identifying habitat for a species which has undergone extreme range
collapse, and which has very fine scale habitat needs, presents novel
challenges for spatial ecologists. Our multi-method, multi-hypothesis
approach can allow habitat modelers to identify areas of consensus and,
perhaps more importantly, critical knowledge gaps that could resolve
disagreements among the models. For pronghorn, a better understanding of
their upper thermal tolerances and whether historical populations migrated
will be crucial to their potential recovery in California and throughout
the arid Southwest.