Global calculated drift potential of winds in DJF, MAM, JJA, SON

Soil moisture in the active aeolian layer (the top ~2 mm of the soil) impacts dust emission by increasing the threshold for emission, and thus precipitation has the potential to suppress dust emission. The purpose of this study was to use reanalysis and satellite data similar to those used in global and regional dust emission models to calculate the probability that a high wind event happens during the period that antecedent precipitation would have left the active layer wet. The results indicate that the answer to this question is more strongly related to regional climate than soil texture. For more than half of the globe with mean annual precipitation < 500 mm/year, the probability of precipitation influencing dust emission is greater than 30 – 40%.  Thus, rain-derived soil moisture in the active layer should not be ignored in models throughout much of the world’s dust producing regions.