Public health threats and political participation: evidence from Israel in the early stages of COVID-19

This study examines the impact of health crisis threats on political participation. Health crises impose psychological costs, such as elevated threat perception and fear, and physical costs, including the bodily impact of diseases and reduced mobility, which can affect voting behavior. We use the case of Israel, which held three election cycles in less than a year, with the last election occurring shortly after the onset of COVID-19 but before the pandemic’s full economic and political consequences were evident. Using a difference-in-differences approach that leverages the geographic variation of populations more vulnerable to and potentially more concerned about the disease, and the temporal variation of the three close elections. Our findings show that the health crisis negatively impacted voter turnout among vulnerable groups. Areas with higher proportions of vulnerable voters exhibited relatively lower participation rates, indicating that even the early phases of a health crisis, or health crises with little physical impact, are a hurdle to in-person voter turnout. We use individual-level data to confirm the connection between concerns about health and diminishing intention to participate in elections.