Factors Influencing Madden-Julian Oscillation Teleconnections and Prediction Skill

The Madden–Julian Oscillation is a giant pulse of clouds and rain that moves across the tropics, shaping weather worldwide through atmospheric waves. This thesis explores how its characteristics are influenced by other climate patterns, such as El Niño and La Niña, and how these interactions affect the Southern Hemisphere climate. Using forecast models and observational data, these patterns — along with oscillating winds high in the atmosphere and changes in Indian Ocean temperatures — strongly shape its prediction skill, often more than model errors. This thesis highlights the need to better capture ocean–atmosphere interactions to improve forecasts vital for communities worldwide.