Declining Crop Prices, Rising Production and Exports Highlight U.S. Agricultural Projections to 2023

Each year in its Agricultural Baseline Projections, USDA provides a 10-year outlook for major crop and livestock commodities based on key assumptions related to macroeconomic conditions, U.S. policy, and existing international agreements. The data include agricultural production, trade, and domestic demand projections. Projections are made assuming normal or “average” weather (without extreme weather events) and use data available as of the October 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and are not updated to reflect subsequent revisions. For crops, the projections begin with marketing year 2023/24 and end at 2032/33. Livestock Baseline projections start with the 2024 calendar year and end in 2032. Overall, the 2023 Baseline projections offer a mixed picture for the various commodities reflecting longer term underlying trends, including income and population growth, yield growth, domestic and foreign land allocation, and dietary preferences.