Agricultural Diversity, Structural Change, and Long-run Development: Evidence from the U.S.

This project examines the role of agricultural diversity in the process of development. Using data from U.S. counties and exploiting climate-induced variation in agricultural production patterns, I show that mid-19th century agricultural diversity had positive long-run effects on population density and income per capita. During the Second Industrial Revolution, agricultural diversity fostered industrialization, diversification within manufacturing, patent activity, formation of new labor skills, and the expansion of knowledge- and skill-intensive industries. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that diversity spurs the acquisition of new ideas and new skills because of the presence of cross-sector spillovers and complementarities.