The predictive adaptive response: modeling the life history evolution of the butterfly, Bicyclus anynana, in seasonal environments.

A predictive adaptive response (PAR) is a type of developmental plasticity where the response to an environmental cue is not immediately advantageous but instead is later in life. The PAR is a way for organisms to maximize fitness in varying environments. Insects living in seasonal environments are valuable model systems for testing the existence and form of PAR. Previous manipulations of the larval and the adult environments of the butterfly Bicyclus anynana have shown that individuals that were food restricted during the larval stage coped better with forced flight during the adult stage compared to those with optimal conditions in the larval stage. Here, we describe a state-dependent energy allocation model, which we use to test whether such a response to food restriction could be adaptive in nature where this butterfly exhibits seasonal cycles. The results from the model confirm the responses obtained in our previous experimental work and show how such an outcome was facilitated by ...