Comparison of province-level prediction accuracy between full-data and real-time predictions, by prediction horizon.

These results were computed comparing predictions as if the full data was available at the analysis time with the real-time predictions that build in a 6-biweek (approximately 3 month) buffer to account for delayed case data. The table shows the 5th percentile (Q5), 25th percentile (Q25), median (Q50), 75th percentile (Q75), and 95th percentile (Q95) value of the relative MAE from each province at the given horizon. The relative MAEs were calculated as the MAE from the real-time predictions divided by the MAE from the full-data predictions, i.e. values larger than 1 indicate that the real-time models showed more absolute error on average than the full-data models.