Informing African agricultural health: Integrating human population dynamics and climate change into banana bunchy top disease risk assessment - model results and driver data.

Abstract Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) is a major emerging viral disease of banana plants in Africa, threatening food security and economies. BBTD has spread to numerous (sub-)tropical African countries, with new incursions in multiple countries confirmed even within the last few years. We assessed the continent-wide risk of BBTD, to provide an informative tool of large-scale risk areas of BBTD introduction, establishment and spread. These are the model outputs and underlying drivers of this assessment. Data The data include contemporary (contemporary_predictions_africa.tif) and future (future_predictions_africa.tif) predictions of BBTD presence, and the area-of-applicability (aoa), as well as the underlying driver dataset (drivers.tif). We also include the variables of importance ranking of the underlying model. Driver data includes subsets and regridded data of CHELSA-BIOCLIM+ data (Brun et al., 2022) WorldPop (WorldPop 2018, for year 2020) CROPGRIDS (Tang et al., 2024) MODIS EVI data (Didan, 2021) References Brun, P., Zimmermann, N.E., Hari, C., Pellisier, L., and Karger, D.N. (2022). Global climate-related predictors at kilometre resolution for the past and future. Earth System Science Data, 14(12), 5573-5603. doi:10.5194/essd-14-5573-2022 Didan, K. (2021). MODIS/Terra Vegetation Indices Monthly L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V061. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center. Accessed 2024-06-11 from https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD13A3.061. Tang, F.H., Nguyen, T.H., Conchedda, G., Casse, L., Tubiello, F.N., and Maggi, F. (2024). CROPGRIDS: a global geo-referenced dataset of 173 crops. Scientific Data 11, 413. doi:10.1038/s41597-024-03247-7 WorldPop (www.worldpop.org - School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton; Department of Geography and Geosciences, University of Louisville; Departement de Geographie, Universite de Namur) and Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University (2018). Global High Resolution Population Denominators Project - Funded by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1134076). doi:10.5258/SOTON/WP00674