Population recovery sensitivity and extinction probability after the impact of an environmental disturbance using a 5-stage-structured mathematical model

A 5-stage-structured mathematical model (UDI: R4.x261.232:0001) was used to examine the sensitivity of recovery time after a time-varying environmental disaster. As a test case, stage-specific survival and transition rates, and annual fecundity values for the Gulf of Mexico sperm whales were used to model the recovery rates after environmental disaster impacts on population survival. This analysis allows for the examination of the relationship between the DWH oil spill and the sensitivity of sperm whale population recovery to pre-disaster or biologically relevant levels with changes in the initial population structure and size, vital rates, and event severity.