Post-Strike Nuclear Displacement Doctrine: Strategic Modeling of Defection Risk After State-Level Nuclear Strikes

This article introduces the Post-Strike Nuclear Displacement Doctrine, a strategic framework for anticipating nuclear defection risks following conventional military strikes on nuclear states. Using the June 2025 Israeli airstrikes on Iran as a case study, the doctrine outlines how individuals with critical nuclear knowledge may attempt escape to hostile adversaries through intermediary states. By integrating ISR blind spots, psychological defection indicators, and geopolitical escape corridors, this framework expands traditional deterrence to include cognitive and human-centric dimensions. The paper argues that nuclear knowledge is a mobile payload and must be secured with equal urgency as physical assets post-strike.