Dataset for Forecasting the climate-conflict risk in Africa

Dataset and scripts for replicating the paper "Forecasting the climate-conflict risk in Africa along climate-related scenarios and multiple socio-economic drivers"

Caterina Conigliani (Roma Tre University); Valeria Costantini (Roma Tre University); Elena Paglialunga (Roma Tre University); Andrea Tancredi (La Sapienza University)

Abstract
This study investigates how climate change might impact economic development in the future through its effects on violence, addressing the gap in research on long-term conflict risk assessment. Using geocoded data (1° resolution) on climate and socio-economic indicators covering 1990-2050, we employ a forecasting recursive model to examine the probability and intensity of different types of conflict, under various socio-economic and climate scenarios. Our analysis reveals that climate change has both direct and indirect effects on violence, highlighting the key role of the agricultural channel, the spillover across neighbouring areas and the socio-economic context. These findings offer new insights into adaptation strategy and provide implications for the need to jointly account for the complex interactions between climate conditions, socio-economic factors, and conflict dynamics.

本数据集及脚本旨在复现论文《沿气候相关情景和多种社会经济驱动因素预测非洲气候冲突风险》的研究成果。该研究由 Caterina Conigliani（罗马三大学）、Valeria Costantini（罗马三大学）、Elena Paglialunga（罗马三大学）和 Andrea Tancredi（拉齐奥大学）共同完成。摘要部分阐述了气候变化如何通过其对社会暴力的影响，对未来经济发展产生潜在冲击，并填补了长期冲突风险评估研究领域的空白。本研究采用地理编码数据（1°分辨率），涵盖了1990年至2050年的气候和社会经济指标，运用预测递归模型，对在不同社会经济和气候情景下，不同类型冲突发生的概率和强度进行考察。分析结果表明，气候变化对暴力具有直接和间接的影响，突显了农业渠道的关键作用、相邻区域之间的溢出效应以及社会经济背景的重要性。这些发现为适应策略提供了新的洞见，并对气候条件、社会经济因素与冲突动态之间复杂互动关系的综合考量提出了重要启示。