Replication Data for: Who Leads the Flock? Religion and the Radical Right among Brazilian Migrants

Brazilians in the United States voted overwhelmingly for right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. What effect did religion, an important part of many migrants' day-to-day lives, have on their voting behavior? Based on exit polling of Brazilian expatriate voters, focus groups, and observation of local Brazilian churches, this paper explores how conservative Christianity drives support for right-wing populism among Brazilian migrants to the Boston area, who stand out for their bolsonarista tendencies. Christians, and especially evangelicals, are significantly more likely than other Brazilian migrants to vote for Bolsonaro, and the priests and pastors of Brazilian migrant churches are particularly willing to discuss parties and candidates. Yet neither clergy endorsements nor explicit conversation about politics at church explains this religious effect. I argue that indirect influence within congregations, which reinforces a conservative worldview in ways that are not overtly political, helps explain why observant evangelicals tend to favor Bolsonaro.2022年，美国境内的巴西裔选民以压倒性多数支持右翼民粹主义者雅伊尔·博索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）。宗教作为众多移民日常生活的重要组成部分，对其投票行为产生了何种影响？本研究基于对巴西外籍选民的出口民调、焦点小组访谈以及对当地巴西裔教堂的观察，探讨了保守派基督教如何推动前往波士顿地区的巴西移民群体对右翼民粹主义的支持——该群体因显著的博索纳罗支持者倾向而引人注目。基督教信徒，尤其是福音派信徒，相较于其他巴西移民，支持博索纳罗的比例显著更高；而巴西移民教堂的神职人员与牧师也更乐于讨论政党与候选人议题。然而，无论是神职人员的公开背书，还是教堂内针对政治的直接讨论，都无法解释这一宗教层面的影响效应。本研究认为，教会会众内部的间接影响——以非显性政治的方式强化保守派世界观——能够解释为何虔诚的福音派信徒更倾向于支持博索纳罗。