There's a Chance of What? Assessing Numeracy Skills of Forecasters, Emergency Managers, and Publics to Improve TC Product Uncertainty Communication, IDSS, and Training

Scientists are rapidly developing new models and techniques to produce probability information that is meant to help forecasters better communicate uncertainty to core partners and members of the public. We, the research team, see this as a positive development, but there are many barriers to effective comprehension and communication of probability information, including numeracy. Forecasters, core partners, and members of the public are people, and people solve problems in different ways. For some, numeric probabilities are easy to calculate and use when making decisions; for others, graphic aids and/or narrative expressions of uncertainty are more intuitive. The primary objective of this study was to accelerate effective communication of probability information by empirically identifying variation in numeracy across different groups and some of the pathways through which numeracy may impact public response to probability information in the weather enterprise. Grant no. NA19OAR0220120