Multistate capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models of the Peromyscus leucopus mice.

Model selection results from the CMR model with four states: (1) susceptible juveniles, (2) Borrelia burgdorferi-infected juveniles, (3) susceptible adults, and (4) B. burgdorferi-infected adults. There are five CMR parameters: monthly survival rate (φ), recapture rate (p), infection rate (β), developmental rate (α), and delta transition rate (δ). Explanatory factors include: B. burgdorferi infection status (Bb), stage (s), sex (x), area (a), month (m), year (y), monthly area-specific prevalence of B. burgdorferi in the mouse population (Prev), monthly area-specific Ixodes scapularis tick burden in the mouse population (Tick.m), annual area-specific tick burden in the mouse population (Tick.y), annual area-specific tick-induced blood loss in the mouse population (Blood), annual area-specific nymphal burden in the mouse population (nymph), and the annual area-specific burden of infected nymphs (BIN). The structure of the starting model (A00) was based on a priori predictions. Models A01 to A07 were reduced versions of the starting model. The five parameters were modeled in the following sequence: δ transition (models B01 to B04), development (models C01 to C06), infection (models D01 to D10), recapture (models E01 to E05), and survival (models F01 to F08). We used U-CARE to test whether model G01 met the assumptions of the multi-state CMR analysis.Multistate capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models of the Peromyscus leucopus mice.