How Do Heavy Drinkers Make Enduring Changes to Their Alcohol Consumption after Taking Part in Dry January: A Prospective Observational Study, 2022-2023

Participation in Dry January is associated with reductions in alcohol consumption six-months later. Increased drink refusal self-efficacy (DRSE) appears to mediate these reductions. However, little is known about other potential determinants and mechanisms of change. We aimed to overcome limitations of previous studies and examine outcomes of Dry January participation for heavy drinkers (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test – Consumption (AUDIT -C) >4) and investigate factors that may underpin these reductions, including seasonal variation in alcohol consumption, access to online supports, and other psychological and social constructs.

Prospective observational study in which we administered a series of online surveys across four timepoints: pre-Dry January, post-January, and three and six months later.

Data was collected from participants based in the UK using online surveys.

Three groups of heavy drinking participants were recruited, those who: (1) registered for Dry January with the organisers Alcohol Change UK (‘official’, n=291, mean age = 49.10); (2) attempted an independent alcohol-free January without registering for the official campaign (‘unofficial’, n=115, mean age = 45.09); and (3) did not participate in Dry January at all (‘No Dry January’, n=225, mean age =47.91).

The primary outcome measure was AUDIT-C at six months. Predictors were DRSE, drinker identity, motivation to change, social contagion, level of abstinence during January, and frequency of use of online supports (Try Dry app, emails, Facebook groups).