Forecast data of provincial carbon emissions in China from 2025to 2035: based on ARIMA-BP model

China is an important contributor to global carbon emissions. Accurately estimating carbon emissions is crucial for reducing carbon emissions in accordance with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and China's carbon neutrality strategy. This study selected energy consumption data from Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021, calculated carbon emissions using the carbon emission factor method, and then predicted carbon emissions data for 2022-2035 using the ARIMA-BP model. This dataset can be used to describe the spatiotemporal evolution trend of carbon emissions in China. This study can provide policy basis and wisdom for China's carbon reduction efforts

中国是全球碳排放的重要贡献主体。精准估算碳排放量，对于落实联合国可持续发展目标及推进中国碳中和战略下的碳减排工作至关重要。本研究选取2000年至2021年中国各省的能源消费数据，采用碳排放因子法（carbon emission factor method）核算碳排放量，并基于ARIMA-BP模型对2022年至2035年的碳排放数据进行了预测。本数据集可用于刻画中国碳排放的时空演化趋势，可为中国碳减排工作提供政策依据与决策参考。