Hydrologic scenarios of the main Nile tributaries

The water supply model considers four main tributaries to the Nile: Blue Nile, White Nile, Dinder-Rahad and Tekeze-Atbara.

Starting from future time series created according to three RCPs scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), a large ensemble of uncertain streamflow is generated by altering the timing and magnitude of extremes (Quinn, J. D., et al. Exploring how changing monsoonal dynamics and human pressures challenge multireservoir management for flood protection, hydropower production, and agricultural water supply. Water Resources Research, 2018, 54.7: 4638-4662). Future streamflows are derived from IPCC 5th assessement’s projections of temperature and precipitation using the HBV model and altered by first fitting the monthly means in a Fourier decomposition and then applying perturbations on amplitudes and phases to strengthen the magnitude of extremes and/or their timing.

For each combination of tributary and RCP, 100 different realizations of the monthly streamflow of a 94-year-long time series are generated.

Data are divided based on tributaries and climatic scenarios. In each file, every row is one of the 100 different realizations of the monthly streamflow time series, while each column contains the monthly streamflow of the river reported in m3/s starting from January 2007 in the first column until December 2100 in the last.