Hawaiian gallinule vital rate data from O'ahu and Kaua'i: Reproduction and survival data from an endangered bird

Where stable source populations of at-risk species exist, translocation may be a reasonable strategy for re-establishing extirpated populations. However, the success rates of such efforts are mixed, necessitating thorough preliminary investigation. Stochastic population modeling can be a useful method of assessing the potential success of translocations. Here, we report on the results of modeling translocation success for the Hawaiian Common Gallinule (‘alae ‘ula; Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered waterbird endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. Using updated vital rates, we constructed a model simulating three existing extant (wild) source populations and a hypothetical recipient site on another island. We then projected the effects of six different translocation scenarios and sensitivity of the results to variation of three important demographic parameters on the probability of extinction (PE) of the reintroduced and donor populations. Larger translocations, of at least 30 birds, had low probability of extinction in the reintroduced population, but raised extinction risk of the smallest source population. Spacing out translocations in time (e.g., 10 birds translocated in total in three installments over nine years), led to lower PE than translocating all individuals at once (i.e., bulk translocations) for both the source and reintroduced populations. Brood size and hatch-year juvenile survival had a disproportionate impact on reintroduced population viability. Importantly, the reported juvenile survival rate is very near the threshold for population failure. This suggests that post-introduction and subsequent management of wetlands, particularly predator control, could be critical to reintroduction success. We recommend that individuals should be translocated from multiple, genetically distinct subpopulations to reduce the possibility of inbreeding depression. Based on this analysis, the recipient wetland should be sufficiently large that it can support at least 25 pairs of gallinules. Based on recent estimates of population densities on O‘ahu, such a wetland would need to be between 3.75-74.6 ha. Where stable source populations of at-risk species exist, translocation may be a reasonable strategy for re-establishing extirpated populations. However, the success rates of such efforts are mixed, necessitating thorough preliminary investigation. Stochastic population modeling can be a useful method of assessing the potential success of translocations. Here, we report on the results of modeling translocation success for the Hawaiian Common Gallinule (‘alae ‘ula; Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered waterbird endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. Using updated vital rates, we constructed a model simulating three existing extant (wild) source populations and a hypothetical recipient site on another island. We then projected the effects of six different translocation scenarios and sensitivity of the results to variation of three important demographic parameters on the probability of extinction (PE) of the reintroduced and donor populations. Larger translocations, of at least 30 birds, had low probability of extinction in the reintroduced population, but raised extinction risk of the smallest source population. Spacing out translocations in time (e.g., 10 birds translocated in total in three installments over nine years), led to lower PE than translocating all individuals at once (i.e., bulk translocations) for both the source and reintroduced populations. Brood size and hatch-year juvenile survival had a disproportionate impact on reintroduced population viability. Importantly, the reported juvenile survival rate is very near the threshold for population failure. This suggests that post-introduction and subsequent management of wetlands, particularly predator control, could be critical to reintroduction success. We recommend that individuals should be translocated from multiple, genetically distinct subpopulations to reduce the possibility of inbreeding depression. Based on this analysis, the recipient wetland should be sufficiently large that it can support at least 25 pairs of gallinules. Based on recent estimates of population densities on O‘ahu, such a wetland would need to be between 3.75-74.6 ha.