Predicted daily elk abortion events in southern GYE 2010, 2012, 2014

Using data from 288 adult and yearling female elk that were captured on 22 Wyoming winter supplemental elk feedgrounds and monitored with GPS collars, we fit Step Selection Functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for 5 plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We then predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevalence, and elk population counts. Here we provide the predicted abortion events on a daily basis at a 500m resolution for the 5 different weather scenarios: 1) low snowfall year (2010), 2) average snowfall year (2012), 3) high snowfall year (2014), 4) hypothetical early snowmelt climate change scenario where spring green up started, snow melt occurred, and supplemental feeding ended 14 days earlier than in the low snow year of 2010, and 5) hypothetical winter drought climate change scenario where spring green up started, snow melt occurred, and supplemental feeding ended 28 days earlier than in the low snow year of 2010.