Spatial and temporal evolution and prediction of carbon stocks in Yancheng Yellow Sea wetland world natural heritage site based on InVEST-PLUS modeling

Coastal wetland is a unique component of ecosystem, and its strong carbon storage capacity plays an important role in global carbon balance, which has become a hot spot of current research. Taking the Yancheng Yellow Sea wetland world natural heritage site as the study area, this paper utilizes the PLUS model and the InVEST model, combined with four time periods of land use data in 2000, 2010, 2015 and 2020, to portray the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the carbon stock in the Yellow Sea wetland, and to carry out simulation predictions for three scenarios. The results show that: (1) the land use types of Yancheng Yellow Sea wetland changed significantly from 2000 to 2020, in which the changes of cultivated land and waters were dominated by two types of changes, with the cultivated land decreasing by 6966.27 ha and waters increasing by 6220.26 ha. (2) the carbon stock of Yancheng Yellow Sea wetland showed an overall decreasing trend from 2000 to 2020, with a decrease of 216.91×103 t. The main reason for carbon loss is that the loss of carbon storage from the reduction of arable land is greater than the carbon storage from the increase of water. (3) The carbon stocks of the Yancheng Yellow Sea wetland ecosystem under the three scenarios of natural development, economic development and ecological protection are predicted to be 10430.88×103 t, 10447.36×103 t, and 10458.14×103 t, respectively, by 2030, which is an increase in carbon stock (10447.85×103 t) compared to that of 2020, which will only increase under the ecological protection scenario. increased. This study provides a scientific basis for the restoration and management of the carbon sink capacity of coastal wetland ecosystems in China, and provides a Chinese case study for the global coastal wetland carbon sink study.