Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change

Latitudinal range limits for mangroves on high-energy, wave-dominated coasts are controlled by geomorphological features and estuarine dynamics. Mangroves reach a southern global range limit along the South African coastline, but the distribution is patchy, with stands occurring in only 16% of the estuaries in the region. Yet, the persistence of forests planted >50 years ago beyond the natural distribution limit suggests that additional estuaries could support mangroves. Understanding regional drivers is necessary to inform global scale estimates for how this important ecosystem is predicted to respond to climate change.
Here, we combine species distribution modeling (MaxEnt), Lagrangian particle tracking using an eddy- and tide-resolving numerical ocean model, and connectivity matrices, to identify suitable mangrove habitats at present, as well as under the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios.
Within the current South African distribution range (± 900 km), eight more estuaries ...