Expanded distribution and predicted suitable habitat for the critically endangered yellow-tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) in Peru

The Tropical Andes Biodiversity Hotspot holds a remarkable number of
species at risk of extinction due to anthropogenic habitat loss, hunting
and climate change. One of these species, the Critically Endangered
yellow-tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda), was recently sighted
in Junín region, 206 kilometres south of its previously known
distribution. The range extension, combined with continued habitat loss,
calls for a re-evaluation of the species’ distribution and available
suitable habitat. Here, we present novel data from surveys at 53 sites in
the regions of Junín, Cerro de Pasco, Ayacucho and Cusco. We encountered
L. flavicauda at 9 sites, all in Junín, and the congeneric L. l. tschudii
at 20 sites, but never in sympatry. Using these new localities along with
all previous geographic localities for the species, we made predictive
Species Distribution Models based on Ecological Niche Modelling using a
generalized linear model and maximum entropy. Each model incorporated
bioclimatic variables, forest cover, vegetation measurements, and
elevation as predictor variables. Model evaluation showed >80%
accuracy for all measures. Precipitation was the strongest predicter of
species presence. Habitat suitability maps illustrate potential corridors
for gene flow between the southern and northern populations, although much
of this area is inhabited by L. l. tschudii. An analysis of the current
protected area (PA) network showed ~47% of remaining suitable habitat is
unprotected. With this, we suggest priority areas for new protected areas
or expansions to existing reserves that would conserve potential corridors
between L. flavicauda populations. Further surveys and characterization of
the distribution in intermediate areas, combined with studies on genetic
flow, are still needed to protect this species.