Rapid niche shifts in exotic species can be a million times faster than changes among native species and ten times faster than climate change

Aims: As global temperatures rise, the survival of many species may hinge on whether they can shift their climatic niches quickly enough to avoid extinction. Previous analyses among species and populations suggest that species’ niches change far slower than rates of projected climate change. However, it is unclear how quickly niches can change over the timeframe most relevant to global warming (decades instead of thousands or millions of years). Here, we use data from introduced species to assess how quickly climatic niches can change over decadal timescales. Location: Global Methods: We analyze climatic data from 76 reptile and amphibian species introduced into the U.S. We test for a relationship between species climatic-niche values in their native and introduced ranges. We also quantify niche shifts in introduced populations relative to their native ranges and the rate of change associated with these shifts. We then compare these rate estimates to those estimated among speci...