Adaptive cycle evaluation and obstacle factors analysis in coastal border tourism destinations: A case study of Fangchenggang City

Taking Fangchenggang City as a typical case, this study employs the adaptive cycle theory as its conceptual framework and utilizes multi-source data to measure the adaptive cycle attributes of each county-level unit in Fangchenggang from 2012 to 2022. Furthermore, relevant methods are applied to analyze the stages of adaptive cycle evolution and identify constraint factors. The results indicate that: 1) The overall trend of potential, connectedness, and resilience in the tourism system across Fangchenggang’s county-level units shows an upward trajectory. A spatial pattern is observed in which these three attributes are higher in coastal-border areas and lower in inland regions. 2) The identification of adaptive cycle evolution stages reveals that Dongxing City has undergone all four phases—exploitation, conservation, release, and reorganization. In contrast, Fangcheng District, Gangkou District, and Shangsi County have only experienced the exploitation and conservation stages. 3) The interaction between the core system and its environment is identified as the key dimension impeding the adaptive evolution of tourism systems in each county-level unit. The level of government management over the environment and tourism emerges as the primary factor influencing the adaptive evolution of the tourism system. Despite notable progress, coastal-border tourism destinations continue to face development bottlenecks, particularly in establishing a distinctive and competitive tourism brand. Achieving a strategic synergy between “border” and “marine” resources and enhancing adaptability of tourism systems to external environments are critical steps for transforming development weaknesses into strengths and elevating overall competitiveness of this unique category of tourism destinations.