Climate envelope modeling for evaluating anticipated effects of climate change on threatened and endangered species in the Greater Everglades

Our proposed project works toward finding solutions to problems related to long-term conservation planning in the face of the uncertainty surrounding climate change. We propose to work with resource managers to develop tools at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to assist with decision making. This project will result in both predictive ecological models and methodology for development and use of climate-based species-habitat relationships that will aid resource managers in long-term planning for sustainability of species.

To demonstrate the process and utility of our proposed approach, we will begin by focusing on the 21 threatened and endangered (T&E) terrestrial vertebrates in South Florida. By virtue of its physical features and geography, Florida, and in particular, South Florida will be highly susceptible to climate changes, specifically with regard to already apparent sea level rise. Although methodology and developed products will be applicable to other species and regions, our initial focus is to work with partners in the southeastern region and expand the list of species of interest in that region.

For each species we will use existing information for these 21 T&E species (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1999, Cox et al. 1994), augment it with up-to-date data, and identify critical limiting factors directly and indirectly influenced by climate change. This information will be provided in the form of databases, species models (including climate envelopes), maps, and a desktop application that can be used in conjunction with projections of climate change, land use, and vegetation change to examine potential impacts on T&E species and their habitats.

Recent attention to potential impacts of climate change on habitats and species has focused on development of methods and tools that not only address current habitat and landscape conditions for species, but also help resource managers to look at potential future conditions to aid in long-term planning. Key elements to our proposed work are identifying limiting factors for species with respect to their habitats, compiling and applying population and habitat models, explicitly addressing uncertainties (assumption-driven research), and developing species habitat decision support. Data collected will be useful as inputs for efforts to assess species vulnerability.