Supplementary files_Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 and Government Fiscal Policies on the Korean Economy Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model

This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Korean government's fiscal measures on macroeconomic and microeconomic shifts. Utilizing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model and database version 11, with 2017 as the base year, we aggregated 160 regions and 65 sectors into 9 regions and 18 sectors. The model projected the global economy to 2020 using variables such as real GDP, population, capital stock, and labor supply for a baseline scenario. Two policy scenarios assessed the impacts of the pandemic and a fiscal stimulus package. Results indicated a global decline in real GDP and welfare, with disruptions in supply chains and increased trade costs negatively affecting import and export volumes. Sectors such as tourism were particularly impacted. Specifically, the Korean economy faced a significant negative impact from the pandemic. Despite government fiscal measures that positively influenced real GDP, Korea's real GDP contracted by 1.7% in 2020, deviating from the pre-pandemic growth changes of approximately 2% per year. Welfare losses amounted to US$103 billion, driven by decreased consumer spending and increased unemployment. Export and import volumes fell, leading to a narrower trade deficit of US$17 billion compared to the previous year. The study underscores the need for targeted fiscal measures to mitigate adverse effects, recommending policies to stimulate private household consumption, support affected sectors, and enhance Korea's international trade competitiveness.