ß-values (± se) of the models that included a weather variable with the highest support from the data.

Shown are the ß-values for the factor age (negative values indicate a lower apparent survival probability of first year birds) and for the climate variable for both age classes (fy: first year birds, ad: adult birds) for the most parsimonious model (Model 1) of the species and for the models with a ΔAICC ≤2.0 (Models 2–4). The models are indicated by the variables that are used to estimate apparent survival. 1: regression coefficients whose signs are consistent with a priori expectations. Note that we had no a priori expectations for the sign of the coefficient for the model including a constant trend in survival probability for the willow warbler.