Technical Summary of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Cross-Section Box TS.1, Figure 1 (v20230203)

Data for Figure CSB TS.1, 1 from the Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Cross-Section Box TS.1 Figure 1, shows Earth's surface temperature history and projections to 2100 --------------------------------------------------- How to cite this dataset --------------------------------------------------- When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, L. Goldfarb, I. Gorodetskaya, J.M. Gutierrez, R. Hamdi, E. Hawkins, H.T. Hewitt, P. Hope, A.S. Islam, C. Jones, D.S. Kaufman, R.E. Kopp, Y. Kosaka, J. Kossin, S. Krakovska, J.-Y. Lee, J. Li, T. Mauritsen, T.K. Maycock, M. Meinshausen, S.-K. Min, P.M.S. Monteiro, T. Ngo-Duc, F. Otto, I. Pinto, A. Pirani, K. Raghavan, R. Ranasinghe, A.C. Ruane, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, B.H. Samset, S. Sathyendranath, S.I. Seneviratne, A.A. Sörensson, S. Szopa, I. Takayabu, A.-M. Tréguier, B. van den Hurk, R. Vautard, K. von Schuckmann, S. Zaehle, X. Zhang, and K. Zickfeld, 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002. --------------------------------------------------- Figure subpanels --------------------------------------------------- The figure has five panels with data provided for panels a, b and c from the underlying chapter figures (2.11, 4.19). Data for panel e is from Figure 4.11 and a link is provided to data and code in the Related Documents section. --------------------------------------------------- List of data provided --------------------------------------------------- This dataset contains: - Global surface temperature changer over the Holocene divided into three time scales: (i) 12,000 to 1000 years ago (10,000 BCE to 1000 CE) in 100-year time steps, (ii) 1000 to 1900 CE, 10-year smooth, and (iii) 1900 to 2020 CE. All temperatures are relative to 1850–1900. - Spatially resolved temperature trends (°C per decade) for HadCRUTv5 over 1981–2020 - Multi-model temperature mean projected changes from 1995–2014 to 2081–2100 in the SST3-7.0 scenario. - Temperature from instrumental data for 1850–2020. - Assessed projected temperature change in 20-year running mean global surface temperature for five scenarios (central estimate, very likely range for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0), relative to 1995–2014 and 1850–1900. --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to figure --------------------------------------------------- - Panels (a), (c) and the top part of (b) are from Figure 2.11. - The bottom part of (b) is from Figure 4.19. - Panel (e) is from Figure 4.11. Panel a (from Figure 2.11 panel a): - Figure_2_11a-PAGES_2k_Consortium.csv (center) - Figure_2_11_panel_a.csv (right) Panel b (upper part from Figure 2.11 input data) - IndermediateData_Figure-2_11-HadCRUT_significance_overlay_1981-2020.txt - IntermediateData_Figure-2_11-HadCRUT_significance_overlay_1900-1980.txt - IntermediateData_Figure-2_11-HadCRUT_trends_1900-1980.txt - IntermediateData_Figure-2_11-HadCRUT_trends_1981-2020.txt - Figure_2_11-notes_on_HadCRUT_trend_files.pdf Panel b (lower part from Figure 4.19) - ‘Data_shown_in_figure.nc’ Panel c (from Figure 2.11 panel c input data) - Figure_2_11c-lower_panel.csv (lower) - Figure_2_11c-lower_panel.xlsx : same as Figure_2_11c-lower_panel.csv but with the format used by the code that generates the figure. --------------------------------------------------- Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data --------------------------------------------------- Panel d: The data lines are single ensemble members of SSP2-4.5 from BCC-CSM2-MR, FGOALS-f3-L, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, selected on the criterium that they have a diagnosed ECS less than 0.1K away from 3.0. The CMIP6 repository is identical to the one used for Box 4.1 figure 1. The same 39 models with historical simulations are plotted. HadCRUT5 is the same reference as for Box 4.1 figure 1. Assessed GSAT is the same as produced by the figure 4.11 code. Notes on HadCRUT trend maps For each time period, there are two plain text files: one showing the trend values (in °C per decade), the other an indicator of significant (1 = significant, 0 = non-significant, -99 = missing data). Gridpoints with insufficient data for trend calcula)on are shown with a trend of -999.0. The values are on a 5-degree grid, with rows from longitude -177.5 to 177.5 and columns from latitudes -87.5 to 87.5. --------------------------------------------------- Sources of additional information --------------------------------------------------- The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record: - Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website - Link to the report component containing the figure (Technical Summary) - Links to the report components of the underlying chapter figures from which part of this figure was generated (Chapter 2 and Chapter 4) - Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 4, which contains details on the input data used in Table 4.SM.1 - Link to figure 4.11 data stored on WDC-Climate - Link to the code for figure 4.11, archived on Zenodo.