Understanding AUTOCRACY-vs-DEMOCRACY: Psychological Drivers of Global Regime Evolution

In light of the rejuvenated system rivalry between autocracy and democracy, our study examines how psychological shifts in citizens' value orientations reshape selective pressures in the global evolution of regimes. We present our propositions in a model that elaborates Welzel's emancipatory version of modernization theory. To test the model's propositions, we match country-level regime data from V-Dem with individual-level psychological data from the EVS/WVS--in an attempt to identify prevalent long-term dynamics in regime-culture coevolution. We find that demography-driven emancipatory shifts in individuals' value orientations generate cultural environments that bestow a long-term selective advantage on democracy over autocracy. This evidence suggests that the current democratic recession is yet another cyclical episode in the global ebb and flow of regimes, and not a lasting and full-scale reversal of the long-term democratic trend.