Are Ballot Order Effects Heterogeneous?

Past studies of ballot order effects have typically focused on the average benefit to a candidate from being placed at the top of the ballot. But it is possible that this simple average may mask systematic differences in how the ballot order effect varies across candidates and voters. To test this, we analyse all Australian federal elections from 1984-2004, a dataset that is an order of magnitude larger than those used in previous ballot order studies. We find that being placed first on the ballot increases a candidate’s vote share by about 1 percentage point. As a proportion of their total vote, the ballot order effect is much larger for independents and minor parties than for major parties. The ballot order effect appears to be similar for male and female candidates, and does not show strong trends upwards or downwards over the 20 year period covered by our study. Across electorates, the ballot order effect is higher in places where voters are younger and fluency in English is lower.