Data from: Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries.

Objective Gains in life expectancy have faltered in several high-income
countries in recent years. We aim to compare life expectancy trends in
Scotland to those seen internationally, and to assess the timing of any
recent changes in mortality trends for Scotland. Setting Austria, Croatia,
Czech Republic, Denmark, England & Wales, Estonia, France,
Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania,
Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, USA. Methods We used life expectancy data from the Human
Mortality Database (HMD) to calculate the mean annual life expectancy
change for 24 high-income countries over five-year periods from 1992 to
2016, and the change for Scotland for five-year periods from 1857 to 2016.
One- and two-break segmented regression models were applied to mortality
data from National Records of Scotland (NRS) to identify turning points in
age-standardised mortality trends between 1990 and 2018. Results In
2012-2016 life expectancies in Scotland increased by 2.5 weeks/year for
females and 4.5 weeks/year for males, the smallest gains of any period
since the early 1970s. The improvements in life expectancy in 2012-2016
were smallest among females (<2.0 weeks/year) in Northern Ireland,
Iceland, England & Wales and the USA and among males (<5.0
weeks/year) in Iceland, USA, England & Wales and Scotland. Japan,
Korea, and countries of Eastern Europe have seen substantial gains in the
same period. The best estimate of when mortality rates changed to a slower
rate of improvement in Scotland was the year to 2012 Q4 for males and the
year to 2014 Q2 for females. Conclusion Life expectancy improvement has
stalled across many, but not all, high income countries. The recent change
in the mortality trend in Scotland occurred within the period 2012-2014.
Further research is required to understand these trends, but governments
must also take timely action on plausible contributors.